Environics makes it official

Poll brought to you by the good folks at Marshall Savings Plan:


Federal Liberals take four-point lead over Conservatives in new Environics poll: http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=720

Toronto:

The federal Liberals have taken the lead over the Conservatives for the first time since the 2008 federal election, according to a new Environics poll released today. The opposition Liberals have the support of 37 percent of decided voters, an 11 point gain over their level in a previous Environics poll conducted last December. The Conservatives now trail the Liberals by four points, holding 33 percent of voter support, a drop of four points for the party since December.

The New Democrats have also lost support, falling to 13 percent from 17 percent in December.

For the other parties, nine percent would vote for the Green Party, and eight percent would vote for the Bloc Quebecois nationally, which translates into 36 percent support in Quebec.

Among all eligible voters, 22 percent are undecided about which party to vote for, or say they would not vote at all, or refuse to say who they would vote for; this represents a seven-point drop in the undecided figures since December.




Regional Patterns

In Ontario, the Liberals now hold 44 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the Conservatives and 12 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (at 36%) and the Liberals (at 35%) are virtually tied, and the Conservatives trail with 14 percent. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (58%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (44%). The Liberals (44%) have taken the lead in Atlantic Canada over the Conservatives (32%) and New Democrats (21%). British Columbia remains divided among four parties: the Conservatives (33%) the Liberals (28%), the New Democrats (21%) and the Green party (18%).

For further information, please contact:

Donna Dasko, Senior Vice President – Environics Research Group
(416) 969-2816 donna.dasko@environics.ca

Methodology

* Results for this research are based on 958 telephone interviews with a random sample of Canadians aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote. A sample of this size produces results considered accurate to within +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margins of error are larger for the regional sub-samples.

* Interviews were conducted between February 4-9, 2010.

Questions (English):


If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, [Quebec Only] the Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party?

[If “Undecided” ask] Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be inclined to support?